How Republicans Might Survive the Midterms
By: Collin Jones
Republicans find themselves in a markedly different position than they were just two years ago, buoyed by the greatest momentum the party has enjoyed in some time. Donald Trump has reclaimed the White House, securing a second, nonconsecutive term, an achievement unmatched since Grover Cleveland’s return to office in 1892. Republicans have also retaken the Senate, restoring unified control of Congress for the first time since Trump’s first administration. And with a conservative, relatively young Supreme Court firmly in place, the ideological balance of the nation’s highest court appears unlikely to shift leftward anytime soon, a change that has not occurred since the waning days of the Warren Court in the late 1960s.
And yet, despite this rare governing trifecta, there is a growing sense that Republican control may prove fleeting. It does not feel inevitable, nor even likely, that it will survive the coming midterms.
To be clear, the party has not been idle. Republicans can point to a list of tangible accomplishments during the first year of Trump’s second term. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed last summer, delivered sweeping reforms long sought by conservatives, from changes to the social safety net and tax policy to immigration enforcement. President Trump, meanwhile, has taken an aggressive approach to governance, disrupting entrenched bureaucracies as promised, redefining elements of American foreign policy, and enforcing immigration law with a severity unseen in recent presidencies.
But not everything in the promised land is as secure as it appears.
Trump’s already-low approval ratings have slipped further. The federal debt continues to balloon, with no credible long-term solution in sight. Relationships with longtime allies appear strained, and government shutdowns have become so routine that they feel almost inevitable. More troubling still is the rise of political violence and the normalization of rhetoric that excuses, or even celebrates it. The public reaction to the death of Charlie Kirk, in which some on the left openly mocked and cheered the loss of life, was a chilling reminder of how degraded our political culture has become. Closer to home, at Penn State, a flyer depicting an ICE agent being lynched appeared on campus. One year into Trump’s term, this is not the country I hoped to see.
Which brings me to the question I keep returning to: How does the Republican Party not merely survive the next midterms, but position itself for a post-Trump future?
The latter question is a complicated one, and I will leave it for another day. For now, the more immediate challenge is whether Republicans can retain control of Congress beyond its 119th iteration.
The answer, if there is one, begins with Trump himself. His political willpower has undeniably enabled the GOP to enact much of its agenda. But that same force often veers into self-sabotage. Reckless social media posts, the casual blurring of personal grievances with official power, and the perception, fair or not, of using government resources to settle political scores have all contributed to a loss in political capital. Discipline, not domination, may be the difference here between sustaining power and squandering it.
The second element lies with Republicans in Congress. Senators and representatives must be willing to push back when Trump’s demands conflict with their own priorities or with institutional norms. When legislation is rammed through without resistance, Congress risks reinforcing its worst public image: not merely ineffective, but submissive. Lawmakers must reassert themselves as a coequal branch of government, one that, among other things, controls the power of the purse.
Finally, there are the policies themselves. No amount of messaging can obscure the reality that several recently implemented measures have failed to resonate with the average American. While the administration has made some meaningful progress, credit card interest rate caps, for instance, pretending that everything is going well has never been a successful political strategy. If Republicans are serious about governing beyond the next election cycle, they should start by confronting the country’s most pressing challenges, particularly health care and the exploding federal debt.
None of this is easy. But politics rarely is. And perhaps, just perhaps, if Republicans make the right choices now, they may do more than just survive beyond 2026.